Thank you for your follow-up analysis. The lack of thermal generation on the morning of April 28, 2025 was a preventable problem which GreenNUKE will be discussing in an upcoming article.
The principle of lowest cost dispatch apparently kept a pair of available nuclear power reactors offline. The reason is Spain-specific. The Socialist government devised a unique tax on reliable and abundant nuclear power as a method to subsidize the low-quality unreliable power from solar and wind. This Spanish tax was ideologically-driven instead of being based on scientific and engineering principles. This Spanish tax needlessly made reliable nuclear power reactors more expensive, so two reactors Almaraz I (1,011 MW) and Cofrentes (1,064 MW) weren't dispatched in the day-ahead market. Nuclear power reactors tend to supply the greatest amount of synchronous grid inertia (SGI) to a power grid to stabilize frequency, as nuclear power plants reduce the rate of change of frequency in response to perturbations (they damp out frequency oscillations.) However, nuclear power reactors require considerable time to come online as a consequence of the large thermal inertia.
Monitoring the post April 28, 2025 Red Eléctrica (REE) supply information at mid-day shows the grid operator has learned an important lesson. There is significantly more CCGT and nuclear power being dispatched at mid-day to assure sufficient SGI. However, the official reports fail to mention the unique Spanish tax (impuesto) on nuclear power. Politics is the likely cause.
____________
For additional details, please see GreenNUKE's July 8, 2025 article "The Spanish Version of the 'Duck Curve' is a real killer - This curve underscores the problem of insufficient synchronous grid inertia in Spain on April 28, 2025."
Alex Palou has been schooling the Indycar paddock the last couple years too. E85 fumes don't smell bad either! I was breathing them over the weekend at Mid-Ohio.
One of the main issues that is partially overlooked in all the interpretations of the blackout has to do with the intrinsic nature of European TSOs, in which the owner of the lines and other elements of electricity transmission is also the system operator. This leads to a monumental conflict of interest, as they can plan that new transmission and even distribution elements are needed to benefit political choices or particular interests of certain companies that are not entirely necessary and then, with the system operation function, permanently ratify their use. If the system operators were truly independent—as in all North American markets—and served the entire electricity system instead of vested interests, they would not need to operate the system only to permanently justify this or that decision and would serve all those interested in the electricity system as a whole to serve the objectives of the country, the economy, etc.
Thank you for this very comprehensive and informative analysis. I found your conclusions and the subsequent discussion to be of most interest. Let’s hope governments around the World manage to find some intelligent souls in their midst who can actually coax a positive, well informed and constructive response from their masters. (Yes, I am a supreme optimist…).
You forgot “a dynamically unstable power supply without proper stability controls” solar+wind are unstable; RBMK reactors appeared to have had a design error due to a positive void coefficient. They were potentially very unstable as soon as any unanticipated boiling occurred (like when they are run at high power and reduced cooling loads). Similar to the Spanish hubris. Solar and wind might work in that sun drenched peninsula, but much improved grid control system design is required.
Red Electra did change their operating procedures to keep more traditional generation online which has the situation under control for now. It's far too soon for the slow wheels of government to have made any investment decisions yet.
Thank you for your observations confirming Red Eléctrica's (REE's) post - 28 April 2028 changes in operating procedures. There are still more "shoes to drop" regarding this preventable catastrophe.
For the hispanics reading this it's very, very hard not to cringe when you butcher the name of the of the grid operator. Eléctrica, por el amor de dios, not electra.
I understand the pride, but I followed the popular English translation of Electra, the Spanish Ele'ctricia is hard for an English speaker to pronounce and the correct keys are not even available on an English keyboard. We take things in stride when they don't translate to Spanish well, and request the same patience.
Thank you for your follow-up analysis. The lack of thermal generation on the morning of April 28, 2025 was a preventable problem which GreenNUKE will be discussing in an upcoming article.
The principle of lowest cost dispatch apparently kept a pair of available nuclear power reactors offline. The reason is Spain-specific. The Socialist government devised a unique tax on reliable and abundant nuclear power as a method to subsidize the low-quality unreliable power from solar and wind. This Spanish tax was ideologically-driven instead of being based on scientific and engineering principles. This Spanish tax needlessly made reliable nuclear power reactors more expensive, so two reactors Almaraz I (1,011 MW) and Cofrentes (1,064 MW) weren't dispatched in the day-ahead market. Nuclear power reactors tend to supply the greatest amount of synchronous grid inertia (SGI) to a power grid to stabilize frequency, as nuclear power plants reduce the rate of change of frequency in response to perturbations (they damp out frequency oscillations.) However, nuclear power reactors require considerable time to come online as a consequence of the large thermal inertia.
Monitoring the post April 28, 2025 Red Eléctrica (REE) supply information at mid-day shows the grid operator has learned an important lesson. There is significantly more CCGT and nuclear power being dispatched at mid-day to assure sufficient SGI. However, the official reports fail to mention the unique Spanish tax (impuesto) on nuclear power. Politics is the likely cause.
____________
For additional details, please see GreenNUKE's July 8, 2025 article "The Spanish Version of the 'Duck Curve' is a real killer - This curve underscores the problem of insufficient synchronous grid inertia in Spain on April 28, 2025."
https://greennuke.substack.com/p/the-spanish-version-of-the-duck-curve
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool."
Richard P. Feynman
The parties involved in the Iberian blackout would do well to keep that in mind.
Thank you for the careful analysis.
The Spanish at least have the best MotoGP riders.
Burning plenty of high octane race gas too.😎
Alex Palou has been schooling the Indycar paddock the last couple years too. E85 fumes don't smell bad either! I was breathing them over the weekend at Mid-Ohio.
Great drivers track! Been there for IMSA and track days. Can't wait to return.
One of the main issues that is partially overlooked in all the interpretations of the blackout has to do with the intrinsic nature of European TSOs, in which the owner of the lines and other elements of electricity transmission is also the system operator. This leads to a monumental conflict of interest, as they can plan that new transmission and even distribution elements are needed to benefit political choices or particular interests of certain companies that are not entirely necessary and then, with the system operation function, permanently ratify their use. If the system operators were truly independent—as in all North American markets—and served the entire electricity system instead of vested interests, they would not need to operate the system only to permanently justify this or that decision and would serve all those interested in the electricity system as a whole to serve the objectives of the country, the economy, etc.
Thank you for this very comprehensive and informative analysis. I found your conclusions and the subsequent discussion to be of most interest. Let’s hope governments around the World manage to find some intelligent souls in their midst who can actually coax a positive, well informed and constructive response from their masters. (Yes, I am a supreme optimist…).
Hierarchical control, tunnel vision on the problem, poor instrumentation. The parallels with Chernobyl are haunting.
You forgot “a dynamically unstable power supply without proper stability controls” solar+wind are unstable; RBMK reactors appeared to have had a design error due to a positive void coefficient. They were potentially very unstable as soon as any unanticipated boiling occurred (like when they are run at high power and reduced cooling loads). Similar to the Spanish hubris. Solar and wind might work in that sun drenched peninsula, but much improved grid control system design is required.
Please revisit this topic on 4-28-26! What changes/investments were made to prevent a recurrence? Have government policies changed?
Have other countries “gone to school” on the Iberian Blackout?
Red Electra did change their operating procedures to keep more traditional generation online which has the situation under control for now. It's far too soon for the slow wheels of government to have made any investment decisions yet.
Thank you for your observations confirming Red Eléctrica's (REE's) post - 28 April 2028 changes in operating procedures. There are still more "shoes to drop" regarding this preventable catastrophe.
For the hispanics reading this it's very, very hard not to cringe when you butcher the name of the of the grid operator. Eléctrica, por el amor de dios, not electra.
I understand the pride, but I followed the popular English translation of Electra, the Spanish Ele'ctricia is hard for an English speaker to pronounce and the correct keys are not even available on an English keyboard. We take things in stride when they don't translate to Spanish well, and request the same patience.